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House of Dividends
Dividend Fear & Greed Index
LIVE
Mar 15, 2026
51
Neutral
0-25Extreme Fear
25-45Fear
45-55Neutral
55-75Greed
75-100Ext. Greed
7 Signal Indicators — what each one means
1. Yield Spread
0 — Extreme Fear
Compares the average dividend yield of the basket against the 10-Year Treasury yield. A wide positive spread means dividend stocks offer meaningfully better income than “risk-free” bonds. A narrow or negative spread signals rotation into bonds.
Healthy: >1% spread · Danger: <0% spread
-2.13%
Wide spread — dividends beat bonds
Narrow spread — bonds rival dividends
Avg yield 2.14% vs Treasury 4.27%
2. Price Momentum
100 — Extreme Greed
Counts how many aristocrats have their 50-day moving average above their 200-day MA — a “golden cross”. When the majority are trending upward, the market is accumulating dividend stocks. A “death cross” majority signals investors are exiting.
Bullish: 50d MA > 200d MA · Bearish: 50d MA < 200d MA
100%
>65% in golden cross — uptrend
<35% in golden cross — downtrend
1 of 1 showing positive price or earnings trend
3. Payout Stress
100 — Extreme Greed
Measures the average payout ratio — the % of earnings paid as dividends. A low ratio means companies have room to maintain or raise dividends. High ratios (>85%) warn that dividends are stretched and cuts may be coming.
Healthy: <60% · Caution: 60-85% · Danger: >85%
27.5% avg payout
Low payout — dividends well-covered
High payout — cuts become likely
Lower payout ratio = safer dividend coverage
4. Safe-Haven Flow
0 — Extreme Fear
Tracks trading volume in dividend stocks relative to SPY. High relative volume signals defensive rotation — investors seeking reliable income. Low relative volume means risk appetite is elevated and money is chasing growth.
Greed: >1.2x SPY · Fear: <0.8x SPY
0x SPY
High vol vs SPY — defensive demand
Low vol vs SPY — chasing growth
Relative volume vs S&P 500 ETF
5. Analyst Breadth
0 — Extreme Fear
Counts what % of aristocrats are trading above their 50-day moving average. Wide participation — most stocks rising together — shows healthy broad-based buying. Narrow breadth (<30%) is an early warning of sector stress.
Strong: >65% · Weak: <35%
0%
>70% above 50d MA — broad rally
<30% above 50d MA — sector stress
0 of 1 rated Buy or Strong Buy
6. Cut Risk Score
70 — Greed
Flags stocks with negative EPS or a payout ratio above 100% — companies paying more in dividends than they earn. Few flagged means the income stream is reliable. Many flagged signals dividend cuts are likely across the basket.
Safe: <10% of basket flagged · Danger: >25% flagged
15% flagged
Few at-risk — income stream safe
Many at-risk — cuts likely incoming
0 of 0 with negative EPS or payout > 100%
7. Low-Vol Premium
89 — Extreme Greed
Compares the daily price range of dividend stocks vs SPY as a volatility proxy. Aristocrats should be calmer than the broad market. When they trade much calmer than SPY it shows steady conviction. Spikes in relative volatility signal panic or forced selling.
Greed: basket <0.8x SPY vol · Fear: basket >1.2x SPY vol
0.67x SPY vol
Calmer than SPY — steady conviction
Wilder than SPY — panic or forced selling
Basket range 1% vs SPY 1.5% today
How to read this index
0-25 · Extreme Fear
Heavy selling pressure. Yields are high but cut risk is elevated. Historically a contrarian buying opportunity for long-term income investors who can tolerate short-term volatility.
25-45 · Fear
Market caution elevated. Investors rotating away from dividend equities. Review existing holdings for dividend safety before adding new positions.
45-55 · Neutral
Mixed signals. Good time to review fundamentals and rebalance toward your target yield without aggressive action in either direction.
55-100 · Greed
Dividend stocks in favour. Momentum positive, payouts healthy, income reliable. Ideal for DRIPs and dividend growth strategies. Above 75, watch for yield compression as prices rise.
Snapshot
Avg Yield
2.14%
Tracked
65
Yield >3%
0
Yield >5%
0
Top movers today
FDS
2.1%
+1.01%
